Bosch is a worldwide name in a number of areas. These include, for example, electrical and electronic automotive technology, power tools, thermo technology, household appliances, security systems and broadband networks as well as automation technology and packaging technology. Bosch is the second largest supplier to the automotive industry in the world.

        Recently, Bernd Bohr, a member of Bosch’s management board, offered his view of the future of automotive manufacturing and technology.            What you are not going to see, even in the distant future, is Bosch making its own car. However, our vision of what the car of the future should be like must be all the more focused. Only then will we, the world’s second largest supplier to the automotive industry, be able to support the way automotive technology will develop.

        Bosch has always been a company with a vision. Our 3-S program, which we introduced 30 years ago, was truly a lucky strike for us as well as for our customers. Safe, clean and economical (all three words start with the letter S in German) was what we intended the car of the future to be – at the same time we defined our technological orientation which is still valid today. This has inspired us to come up with more than one pioneering achievement: the anti-lock braking system ABS, the electronic stability program ESP, direct fuel injection for gasoline and diesel engines. But we have been thinking about the next leaps in innovations for a long time. We are dealing with the question in which segments the 3-S principle remains the basis for evolutionary progress, and in which segments we should be looking for a complete re-orientation. For example, what about the future competitiveness of direct-injection engines in comparison with alternative propulsion systems, such as hybrids or fuel cells?

        We are also orienting our largest business sector, Automotive Technology, to the future. This sector employs some 146,000 people in 133 production sites all over the world, and we will more than maintain its business volume this year, even in an economically difficult setting. While worldwide automotive production is expected to stagnate in 2003, we are forecasting a sales growth of 1.9 percent to reach 23.5 billion euro.

        During the first third of this year we reached, in comparison to the same period last year, an increase of 1.6 percent – in real terms, without any currency effects, this would even have reached 10 percent. The quick ending of the war on Iraq presented us with a slight easing in the economic environment, but not more. As volatile as the present climate seems to be, we are not relenting when it comes to investing into the future. Quite the contrary, our Automotive Technology business sector will be spending some 2.2 billion euro for research and development this year alone. That is a budget increase of 7 percent compared to 2002. In the current year, we are going to employ about 16,000 people on an average in research and development. That is the team we have on the way towards the future of the car.

        What about our roadmap? From our point of view, three areas of development are of essential importance: drive train, chassis, and driver assistance. Bosch has introduced milestone innovations in all three areas, and that is the way it is going to stay.                        For example, there is driver assistance. Eight years ago our subsidiary Blaupunkt integrated electronic routing into the car. To develop a next generation of high-end systems, we have come up with a new hardware and software platform for a worldwide applicable navigation in conjunction with Japanese supplier Denso. But driver assistance has reached a wider scope in our understanding than just park pilot and adaptive cruise control, to mention two other mass produced products. In the future, we are going to present a number of products which have never been seen or heard of before. We are working on the further development of surround sensorics – the sensitive car. The combination of ultra sonic, radar and video sensors will generate functions with an immediate benefit for the driver: improved night vision, support for lane retention, automatic stop-and-go.

  The first products based on video sensorics will be marketed by Bosch in two years’ time. At present, we have 300 development engineers working on driver assistance – that is almost three times the number of two years ago. That is an indication of the push in growth we are expecting.

Chassis: ESP comes before brake by wire

        There are also clear indications as to where chassis development will go. In the meantime, having first introduced ABS and ESP, we are the only manufacturer to produce the electro-hydraulic brake SBC in series. We are fully aware of the fact that this, as a first step to realizing brake by wire will only remain a high-end solution for the time being, not the least due to the highly sophisticated on-board network infrastructure. We are therefore extending the scope of our ESP by a number of additional functions.

        We are also planning for an interaction with the active steering system which is being developed by our joint-venture company ZF Lenksysteme. Thus in the future, Bosch will not be offering just a single ESP, but a modular system which allows an almost free combination of desired functions tailored to individual markets.

        In North America , the ongoing discussion concerning roll-over safety will surely raise the installation rate with ESP in newly registered passenger cars; starting from a low level of 5 percent last year, we expect this to reach twelve percent by the year 2005. In the long run, however, the future belongs to brake by wire – combined with the advanced on-board network – and Bosch is already prepared for that.

Drive train: alternative solutions to the combustion engine?

        Even though we might still be undecided in the detailed planning, there is a clear outline as to what will in the future make driving safer. A much larger question mark, however, stands behind the long-term development of the drive train. Which brings us back to our initial question: what is the chance of established drive systems in the distant future when they have to compete against hybrid and fuel-cell concepts? It may be surprising that we are asking this question at all in view of the current development. Especially the diesel, in the true sense of the word, has become a top runner. Its share in newly registered passenger cars in Western Europe has crossed the 40 percent mark in 2002, and this year it is moving towards 44 percent. Of our high-pressure injection systems Common Rail and Unit Injector alone we will be producing about six million units in 2003; compared with 5.2 million units last year.

        But the secret is to think of the future when you are at the height of success. So, we are asking ourselves what will determine the future of the drive train. We believe that this will essentially be driven by three factors: firstly, the lowering of emissions as will be demanded by the stricter exhaust-emission limits in Europe and North America; secondly, greater fuel economy, to which the European automotive industry has committed itself and third, fun to drive, which can only be ridiculed by those who only have an eye on solid technology and completely overlook the buyer. Economy and low-pollution are best sold to drivers in a package also made up of fun and action – that is the lesson to be learnt from the diesel’s success story.

Emissions: diesel is capable of meeting U.S. standards

        Let us first take a look at the factor which most would consider the Achilles heel in the future competitiveness of the diesel engine: emissions. In this respect it is easy to overlook the achievements already made in this field. With mere engine-specific measures we have succeeded in meeting the Euro 4 emission limits, which will be valid starting in 2005, for passenger cars of up to 1.8 tons with diesel engines. In direct comparison to the status of 1990, this means: 91 percent less particulates, 95 percent less nitrogen oxides as well as 98 percent less carbon monoxide. And further advances are imminent. The third generation of our Common Rail, equipped with piezo-inline injectors, will reduce emissions by up to another 20 percent.

        Nevertheless, larger passenger cars will probably have to be fitted with exhaust-gas treatment systems in order to meet even the Euro 4 limits. With this in mind Bosch is seriously considering to start the mass production of particulate filters beginning in 2005. What is of the essence in this respect: the filters must have a high regeneration capability and capacity for remaining residues, which is ash. This is the only way to realize service intervals of more than 200,000 kilometers – or practically maintenance-free filters. The particulate filter would enable the combustion ignition engine to take the next hurdle: the U.S. emission standard ULEV, which will be valid starting in 2007. The diesel should be able to make it – even though this will only work in an interaction between NOX catalytic converter and sulfur-free fuel. It will come as no surprise that the spark ignition (SI) engine, hybrid and fuel-cell drives can meet the strict U.S. limits of tomorrow. What goes against a lot of biased opinions, however, is that the diesel indeed has the low-pollution potential to make it in North America .

Fuel economy: a comparison from well to wheel

        The diesel’s special strength, on the other hand, becomes evident when looking at the next factor: the carbon dioxide emission, which can be directly linked to fuel consumption. When assessing the competitiveness of individual drive systems, it should be done well to wheel, which means that we have to consider the effectiveness of fuel provision as well as the effectiveness of the vehicle’s power train. In this respect, diesel direct injection, to start with the state of the art, has an economy advantage of about 30 percent over the classic intake-manifold gasoline injection. The spark ignition engine, in the meantime, is again catching up. Gasoline direct injection reduces fuel consumption less on freeways than in urban traffic, here, however, by up to 16 percent. In a mixed mode operation, savings amount to 10 percent. We are working on further progress, for example, a transition from wall-guided to spray-guided combustion processes. Great savings potential is furthermore expected from downsizing, especially in connection with gasoline direct injection.

        This would mean fewer losses due to smaller engine sizes, but greater output due to turbo charging. Thus there is still great potential to be found in internal combustion engines, not forgetting thermal management. The total sum of all improvements we put at another 20 percent of savings for the gasoline engine and about 15 percent for the diesel engine. Even greater economy, especially with brake-energy recycling, is to be gained from hybrid concepts. These, however, to be realistic, are not without economic drawbacks. And one must keep in mind: the diesel hybrid is still about 18 percent more fuel efficient than a gasoline hybrid.

        But how do internal combustion engines, with or without electrical upgrade, compare to fuel-cell drives? A close look at the degree of efficiency is revealing: even though a fuel cell itself is an extremely efficient engine specific, the provision of the required hydrogen nevertheless is also extremely complicated. The overall degree of efficiency, well to wheel, is thus only slightly superior to that of a diesel engine. At present estimates, mass production of a hydrogen drive will not start earlier than 2020. It is therefore extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment as to what costs the drivers will incur. Still, it is tempting to consider the fuel cell already now in a cost-benefit analysis – and here also in direct comparison to the classic propulsion systems. To reduce the carbon dioxide emission of a compact car by 1 percent, diesel and gasoline engines require about 1 percent additional costs. This same ratio is twice as high for a hybrid drive and about four times as much for a fuel-cell drive. What does this teach us? That the European automotive industry can achieve its self-stipulated goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in new cars to 140 g per kilometer by 2008 through conventional methods – by increasing the number of diesel vehicles and optimizing the internal combustion engine.

Fun to drive: hybrid with potential, diesel remains top

        All considerations have so far been largely supported by numbers, now there is a more subjective element. This cannot be otherwise when assessing a fascinating factor such as driving pleasure which should not be neglected when it comes to marketing success.               However, some more objective approaches can also be used in the evaluation: from greatest speed to acceleration power and elasticity. And this reveals that the fuel-cell drive still requires some basic developments in order to keep up with the competition. Hybrid concepts, on the other hand, already boast great fun potential, last but not least due to their high starting torque. Anyway, the torque and speed curves of combustion and electrical engines could be complementing each other. At present, however, hybrid vehicles are not making full use of this potential. And the classic combustion engines, this should not be overlooked, can still add to greater driving pleasure. Bosch is working on an electrical additional compressor – very important to overcome the turbo lag that may be generated when downsizing with charger. But this will not change the fact that for some time the diesel direct injection engine will remain the standard for driving fun.

        It is quite clear that the classic, even though optimized internal combustion engine will remain the dominating power source for passenger cars for some time to come – with market shares of more than 95 percent until 2015 and with still 85 percent up to 2025. With all the risks inherent to such forecasts, it is nevertheless worthwhile to take a differentiated look at the markets of the Triad. In Japan , we foresee a good chance for hybrid vehicles. In the United States , on the other hand, diesel engines, once they meet the future emission standards, will find an almost ideal situation: long distances, large vehicles, high-torque engines. The strength of the diesel will continue in Western Europe , where we are not expecting a large number of hybrids in the long-run. But the fuel cell technology will gain in importance – if only because the European automotive industry will do their best to demonstrate engineering competence in this field.

        Thus, it may well be possible that as a first step auxiliary systems will be powered instead of the drive train. This would be a bridge leading into the future.